Merton Council Grapples with Declining Primary School Enrollment and Surplus Places

Merton Council is grappling with difficult decisions regarding primary school places as demand continues to fall, according to a recent meeting of the Children and Young People Overview and Scrutiny Panel. The falling demand can have a negative impact on school budgets, potentially affecting teaching, learning and the overall viability of the school, because schools are largely funded based on the number of students enrolled.

The panel discussed the Merton School Places Planning Strategy 2025-2030, which highlighted a significant drop in the need for primary school places since 2016. This trend mirrors similar patterns across London and the rest of the country. The council has already reduced its published admission number by 24 forms of entry since 2016, including the closure of Stanford Primary School.

Despite these reductions, a surplus of 15% against published admission numbers is expected for the 2025/26 reception year. Projections suggest a further decline of 200 pupils by October 2027, potentially increasing the surplus to over 20% if capacity remains unchanged.

To maintain a surplus below 10% for the 2027/28 reception year, a further reduction of 10 forms of entry would be required, with only one currently agreed. The Public reports pack Wednesday 10-Sep-2025 stated that the strategy for managing surplus places included:

• Considering a school's surplus places against its financial position and ability to set a balanced budget. Where the surplus is above 10% and there are concerns over the budgetary position, consideration should be given as to whether a reduction by a multiple of 30 would best support the school's position.
• Encouraging schools to work with the council to agree on admission number reductions at an area level.
• Considering alternative uses for space, such as primary age SEND Additional Resourced Provision.
• Considering alternative models to operate schools for school improvement and to manage a balanced budget, such as hard and soft federations. The potential impacts on teaching quality and student outcomes are not specified in the meeting information.

The panel also reviewed performance monitoring data, which indicated that the percentage of reception year surplus places is currently marked as Red, as performance as at end of Quarter 1 was 13.9%, above the 5-10% target.

On the other hand, secondary school numbers have plateaued after a significant increase up to September 2018, when Harris Academy Wimbledon opened. Between 2022/23 and 2024/25, the council operated below the recommended minimum surplus level of 5% in Year 7, and this is expected to continue in 2025/26 with a predicted surplus of just 1%. The decision to reduce the published admission number (PAN) of Raynes Park High School from 240 to 180 from September 2025 contributed to the low surplus.

Retention into Merton secondary schools has increased from 75% in 2016 to 88% in 2025.

The number of EHCPs (Education, Health and Care Plans) has significantly increased, from 1,075 in January 2016 to 2,730 in January 2025. The council has been implementing special school expansion in recent years, but this has not been sufficient to meet demand. As part of the High Needs 'safety valve' intervention programme agreed with the DfE in early 2022, a series of new expansions are being implemented, including the expansion of Perseid School and a new Special Free School.

The DfE's development of the new Free Special School site has been delayed, but a satellite provision managed by Orchard Hill Academy Trust (OHCAT) opened in September 2025 for 40 places, rising to 80 places by September 2028. A key barrier to achieving 100% performance in completing EHCNA's is sufficiency of the SEND workforce across the local partnership, particularly therapists and educational psychologists due to a national shortage of SEND specialists.

The Public reports pack Wednesday 10-Sep-2025 contains further information.