Bexley Council's Adult Social Care and Public Health Directorate is facing a projected overspend of £3.621 million for the current financial year, as revealed in draft budget and financial plans for 2026/27. The report presented to the Adult Social Care & Health Overview and Scrutiny Committee on February 2, 2026, detailed that the significant overspend, as of November 2025, was primarily attributed to inflationary pressures on care packages and increased placement activity.
The Adult Social Care and Public Health Directorate is forecasting an overspend of £3.621 million as of November 2025. Within this, Adult Social Care is reporting an overspend against budget of £3.621 million. This includes adverse variances of £6.266m, primarily due to overspends in forecasted placement activity and inflationary pressures on care packages. These overspends are partially mitigated by positive variances totalling (£2.383m) from client contributions and Integrated Care Board (ICB) joint funding, and a staffing underspend of (£0.275m).
Of the £3.621 million overspend, £2.5 million was due to inflation exceeding initial allocations. This additional inflation was a significant portion of the overspend on care packages.
During the meeting, councillors raised concerns about the accuracy of forecasting for placement activity, noting a nearly 10% increase on the original estimate. The original budget for placement activity allowed for 3,224 placements. The forecasted activity for the year is estimated to be 3,533, which is 309 more than planned. This increase has resulted in an expected overspend of £5.225m. Officers explained that this was due to an unexpected rise in demand, with a trend of people entering adult social care services at a younger age, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The trend of people entering adult social care services at a younger age means they are with the services for a longer period, increasing the percentage of people supported annually. The council is looking into understanding why this is happening to develop more preventative health and care services to support people to stay healthy and well for longer. A new 'Preparing for Adulthood' pathway is planned for young people transitioning to adult services, focusing on life skills and confidence.
Bexley Council is implementing several measures to address budget pressures, including planned savings and mitigations totalling £5.190m. These include High-Cost Placement Reviews (£0.650m), PFA Placement Reviews (£0.312m), Direct Payments Transfer from Agencies to Personal Assistant (£0.028m), Client Contributions (£1.500m), Direct Payments Under Utilised Funds (£1.000m), Re-Ablement (£0.406m), Targeted Annual Reviews (£0.115m), Benefits Maximisation for clients (£0.130m), Equipment (£0.290m), Optimal Handled Care (£0.160m), Void Reductions (£0.500m), and Mitigation Inflation - 2.3% (£0.099m).
An additional cost pressure of £5.197m is anticipated for 2026/27, primarily for placements growth and inflation. Savings are also expected from the cross-cutting Customer Experience (£1.650m in 2026/27) and Commercialisation (£0.950m in 2026/27) programmes, stemming from the Future Bexley Programme. Service reviews have led to a revision of growth and inflation assumptions.
The council has set aside £10.572m in 2026/27 to fund inflation uplifts for external providers, an assessment of inflation requirements by all services. For Adult Social Care and Public Health, £3.762m of this has been set aside based on identified inflationary requirements. The council will use their best endeavours to contain inflation uplifts as far as reasonably practical during contract negotiations and will monitor this throughout the year. They also note that the council has provided additional contingency for any over and above inflation.
More information can be found in the Public reports pack 02nd Feb 2026.
