Southwark schools are facing potential capacity cuts as pupil numbers decline, according to a report discussed at the Education and Local Economy Scrutiny Commission meeting on Monday. The report highlights a reduction in primary school rolls since 2016, a trend that is expected to continue and impact secondary school admissions.
The report presented to the commission indicated that primary school rolls have decreased by 4,142 since 2016/17, which equates to the size of 10 two-form entry primary schools, or an 18% reduction. This decline is projected to continue, affecting secondary school numbers as well. The drivers for this reduction include:
- A reduction in the number of children being born in Southwark.
- Net outmigration from Southwark of primary aged children.
- Brexit.
- Housing costs.
- Welfare reforms.
- COVID-19.
While secondary school numbers are currently 27% above 2015/16 levels, they have fallen in the last year, and projections suggest a continued reduction in both primary and secondary schools until at least the end of the decade.
The report outlined several factors influencing the connection between primary and secondary school numbers, including:
- The fall and rise in primary school pupils
- The percentage of Southwark pupils who go outside the borough for secondary education
- The number of pupils who come into Southwark from outside the borough for secondary education
- Net migration away or into Southwark for pupils of secondary school age
Currently, 30% of pupils attending a Southwark secondary school reside outside the borough, while approximately 2,500 Southwark residents attend state-funded secondary schools out-of-borough, resulting in a net gain of around 2,000 pupils for Southwark. The report suggests that the popularity of Southwark secondary schools, most of which are Ofsted rated good
or outstanding
, may explain this demand.
As a result of the projected decline in pupil numbers, a reduction in secondary capacity is likely. Academy sponsors and diocesan authorities may decide to shrink, merge or close schools to make the most effective use of resources, where the majority of funding derives from pupil numbers. The council would be a consultee but not directly involved in decisions about closing or reducing the size of academies. Less popular schools are being disproportionately affected by falling pupil numbers, with some seeing losses of up to 40% of Y7-11 pupil numbers, which may be a factor in considering schools for these actions. South Bank University Academy has already applied to close year 7 entry for 2025/26, and Harris Peckham Academy has reduced its intake from 180 to 120 for the current academic year.
Measures to reduce school capacity also include reducing the Published Admissions Number (PAN) at several schools. Six schools have closed since 2021 and there have been reductions in the Published Admissions Number at 18 further schools since 2019.
The report concludes that Southwark Council is maintaining a dialogue with Multi-Academy Trusts (MATs) and diocesan authorities, offering advice and assistance to schools during this period of transition. The council aims to ensure a sustainable estate of secondary schools that continues to deliver high-quality education.
