Barnet Council's Cabinet has approved the full business case for the Dollis Valley regeneration scheme, paving the way for the acquisition of 208 affordable homes. The decision, made at a meeting on Tuesday 21 July 2026, will see the development of 187 social rent homes and 21 key worker living rent homes.
The regeneration of Dollis Valley, which has already seen over 400 new homes delivered through Phases 1-3, had stalled on Phases 4 and 5 due to viability challenges. These challenges stemmed from a challenging macroeconomic environment, including subdued sales, increased construction costs, higher borrowing costs, and weaker market conditions, which rendered the originally consented mixed-tenure scheme undeliverable. Independent viability analysis confirmed that the consented scheme, which proposed 221 homes with 43% affordable housing, was significantly unviable. Sensitivity analysis indicated that viability could only be achieved by reducing the affordable housing proportion to around 12% or increasing private sales values by approximately 26%, both considered unrealistic. The report noted, There were plans for Dollars Valley. There were good plans. They were put together under your administration. And the design and build there is, I think, one of the most attractive of the schemes that we've got in the borough. We've got a challenge due to market failure.
The rules around additionality also meant that extra money could not be obtained to make it viable without delivering the numbers in front of us.
To unlock the final phases and secure much-needed affordable housing, the Council has stepped in to acquire the homes from Vistry. This intervention is supported by £58.85 million in grant funding from the Greater London Authority (GLA), which is contingent on construction works commencing by September 2026. Construction works for the 208 affordable homes are targeted to start on-site by September 2026 at the latest, with the overall programme indicating practical completion is programmed for July 2029. The new leisure centre is expected to be in use by late 2029.
Councillor Ross Houston, Deputy Leader and Cabinet Member for Homes and Regeneration, stated that the decision was driven by policy, viability, and the funding framework, not by speed. He added that GLA funding is not a subsidy to the developer but a mechanism to secure public benefit through the delivery of additional affordable housing. The GLA's funding is tightly monitored and audited, with the release of grant linked to clear milestones, performance indicators, compliance checks, and value-for-money assessments. Funds cannot be drawn down unless the scheme meets strict GLA criteria around design quality, affordability, procurement, delivery pace, and governance.
The approval of the full business case means that the Council will now delegate authority to the Executive Director for Growth, in consultation with the Cabinet Member for Homes and Regeneration, to finalise grant agreements with the GLA, amend the Regeneration Agreement to remove L&Q as the registered provider, and enter into supplementary development agreements with Countryside Properties (UK) Limited for the acquisition of the affordable homes. This move is expected to complete the regeneration programme and provide significant benefits for residents.
Beyond the provision of new affordable housing, residents will experience benefits from the completion of the regeneration programme including improved estate quality, modern energy-efficient housing, creation of places for residents that integrate better with surrounding areas, and the completion of a major regeneration programme. The original consented scheme for Phases 4 and 5 was for 221 homes (95 affordable and 126 market sale), which would have delivered approximately 40% affordable housing across phases 1-5. The revised proposals will bring the affordable housing to approximately 58% across phases 1-5. The total number of homes delivered upon full completion of all phases is estimated to be approximately 621.
The provided meeting information does not contain a direct comparison of the overall cost of the affordable homes for the Council's acquisition versus the original scheme. However, it does state that the original consented scheme was loss-making with an £18m deficit, and the Council's intervention, underpinned by GLA funding, is presented as the only realistic route to complete the regeneration programme in a timely manner and secure significant affordable housing and long-term financial benefits for the Council. The full business case can be found in the Public reports pack.
