Barnet Council is grappling with a challenging market for its housing development projects, facing significant headwinds from inflation, rising interest rates, and a notable slowdown in buyer demand. The Finance and Growth Overview and Scrutiny Sub-Committee heard on Monday 7 September 2026 that these extraordinary economic headwinds
are making some schemes unviable without intervention.
John Percy from CBRE presented a stark overview of the London residential market, noting that the capital has seen the largest annual fall in house prices and that buyer demand remains deeply negative.
According to CBRE's analysis, net new buyer inquiries stood at -40% in Q2 2026, with potential buyers are sitting on their hands rather than progressing.
Housing starts in London have collapsed
to multi-decade lows, attributed to viability, financing, planning timescales, and some retail demand issues, with build-to-rent schemes particularly hard-hit.
Despite these difficulties, Barnet ranked fifth out of 33 London boroughs for housing delivery in 2025, a performance attributed to large-scale projects like Brent Cross Town. Susanna Morales, Head of New Build at Barnet Homes, highlighted two case studies: Moxon Street and Whitings Road, a 56-home mixed-tenure scheme, and Little Strand, a 100% affordable rent scheme of 35 homes on the Grahame Park Estate.
Barnet Council is considering bespoke partnership models
and innovative delivery models
to make unviable housing schemes viable. For the Moxon Street and Whitings Road development, a bespoke partnership model with Bugler Developments
was used. This involved a waterfall agreement in how profit on the private sale homes is shared so that both parties could recover our costs and then split the profit on any leftover funds.
The Little Strand project utilized a procurement process through the Notting Hill Genesis framework using a quality-led evaluation process (Quality: 60%, Cost: 40%), with Bugler appointed as the successful contractor.
The Moxon Street and Whitings Road development commenced construction in March 2026 and is currently progressing on programme
with anticipated completion 2027
. The Little Strand development was Completed in January 2025
.
Rising interest rates have increased borrowing costs for developers, registered providers and local authorities,
placing pressure on development viability across London and the wider UK housing market. This is also impacting the affordable housing sector, with housing associations facing significantly higher interest costs on legacy bonds, which in turn affects their affordability and viability. Furthermore, a significant proportion of Section 1 housing delivered has remained unsold or uncontracted, indicating potential challenges in finding housing associations to take on completed stock, suggesting negative long-term implications for the availability of affordable housing in Barnet.
For more details on the committee's discussions, refer to the Public reports pack.
