Bexley Council is facing a projected budget gap of £21.8 million by 2030, according to its updated Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS).

The strategy, which now extends to the 2030-31 financial year, reveals a widening deficit from an estimated £8.19 million in 2027-28 to the projected £21.88 million by 2030-31.

Children smiling and laughing, with text overlay
Children smiling and laughing, with text overlay "Fostering Strategy 2026-30

This widening gap is attributed to structural pressures in social care and special educational needs (SEN) transport, combined with inflationary pay pressures and anticipated government policy changes. The MTFS assumes annual council tax increases of 4.99% and relies on the successful delivery of savings from service reviews.

Specifically, the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) notes that the widening budget gap broadly continue[s] to reflect the structural pressures in social care, special educational needs transport combined with inflationary pay pressures and expected government policy changes. Further details from the Budget Monitoring Report 2025-26 highlight that the main areas of overspend are, as previously reported, adult social care and SEN transport. The Budget Monitoring report for the current financial year (2026-27) at period two indicates a forecast overspend of £601,000, largely due to SEN transport costs and transformation savings not yet being sufficiently progressed. The Annual Performance Report also acknowledges continuing pressures, particularly in social care, housing, and special educational needs, due to rising demand and complexity.

Two individuals embracing, symbolizing support and care.
Two individuals embracing, symbolizing support and care.

A child's hands hold a purple heart shape, symbolizing care and support.
A child's hands hold a purple heart shape, symbolizing care and support.

Hands cradling a paper cutout of a family, symbolizing care and protection.
Hands cradling a paper cutout of a family, symbolizing care and protection.

A mother and child share an intimate moment, symbolizing the focus on children's services and family well-being discussed at the Bexley Council meeting.
A mother and child share an intimate moment, symbolizing the focus on children's services and family well-being discussed at the Bexley Council meeting.

A mother and child engage in playful learning with building blocks, symbolizing the focus on children's services and family support.
A mother and child engage in playful learning with building blocks, symbolizing the focus on children's services and family support.

For more details on the council's financial strategy, see the Public reports pack.

Bar chart showing the number of children in different age groups, with the largest group being 10-15 years old.
Bar chart showing the number of children in different age groups, with the largest group being 10-15 years old.

Architectural rendering of a new housing development with modern townhouses and parked cars.
Architectural rendering of a new housing development with modern townhouses and parked cars.

Bar charts illustrating
Bar charts illustrating "Profit after Tax", "Peak Debt", and "IRR" for the "Latest Forecast" and "Business Plan 2025".