Redbridge Council is developing plans to ensure sufficient school places for its pupils, navigating a national trend of falling birth rates and declining school rolls. The council's School Organisation Strategy, which is set to be approved by Cabinet, outlines how Redbridge will manage the changing demand for school places over the next five years.

While the need for mainstream primary and secondary school places is decreasing, there is a growing demand for specialist places for children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND). This rise in demand is attributed to a significant increase in demand for specialist places for children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) , as detailed in the report Ensuring Suitable and Accessible School Places for Redbridge's Children - School Organisation Strategy . Furthermore, the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) section of the Budgetary Control Report highlights an anticipated overspend in the High Needs Block due to an increase in the number of Education, Health Care Plans (EHCP's) which are exceeding our local capacity, an increase in placement numbers, alongside increased placement costs due to an increase in complexity of need.

Graph showing projected demand for Year 7 school places and proposed changes to Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) in Redbridge.
Graph illustrating projected demand for Year 7 school places and proposed changes to Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) in Redbridge.

Councillor Lloyd Duddridge, Cabinet Member for Children, Young People and Education, stated that the strategy sets out Redbridge Council's strategic analysis of School Place Planning, providing future forecasts to inform Redbridge Council's planning. It also gives consideration to the sufficiency of early years and post 16 provision, and the increasing needs for Redbridge's children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND). This rounded view enables integrated strategic planning.

The strategy forecasts a continued decline in demand for mainstream primary places, with a planned reduction in the Published Admission Number (PAN) to 3,975 by September 2027. Further reductions are anticipated to bring the secondary PAN in line with projected demand, with a total reduction of 132 places already determined for September 2027 and an additional 180 places planned over the following four years.

Graph showing proposed changes to Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) in line with demand for reception places, illustrating a narrowing gap between PAN and predicted need.
Graph showing proposed changes to Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) in line with demand for reception places, illustrating a narrowing gap between PAN and predicted need.

In contrast, the demand for specialist places for children with SEND is rising. Redbridge intends to utilise spare capacity in mainstream settings to create additional specialist places, which will be a major focus of work and investment over the next five years.

Bar charts illustrating current provision versus projected need for primary and secondary school places for children with autism and speech, language, and communication needs in Redbridge.
Bar charts illustrating current provision versus projected need for primary and secondary school places for children with autism and speech, language, and communication needs in Redbridge.

Redbridge schools have been performing well, with outcomes for pupils exceeding national averages. However, falling rolls are placing significant financial pressure on schools, necessitating proactive and strategic planning to manage staff allocations and avoid deficits. The council aims to make informed decisions to minimise risk to the general fund and ensure the quality of education provided.

A bar chart comparing the Quarter 1 revised budget forecast against the actual budget for various council departments, highlighting financial performance.
A bar chart comparing the Quarter 1 revised budget forecast against the actual budget for various council departments, highlighting financial performance.

The strategy also addresses the provision for early years and 16-19 education, noting sufficient early years places but highlighting the need to expand Level 1 and Level 2 course provision for older students, particularly those with SEND or mental health challenges.

Public reports pack